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Big Picture Insight and Scholae have created an agenda that analyses the major risks, opportunities, and trends in the growing crypto, blockchain, and web3 space. This agenda also goes further in analysing these developments’ impact on the wider world and economy, providing invaluable insight to decision makers, experts and practitioners from all fields and industries. Each topic is delivered in a combined format of presentation followed by a panel discussion.
In order to encourage frank and open dialogue, our events are by default held under the Chatham House Rule, defined as: ‘When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.’
The rapid rise and fall of competing blockchain and web3 projects, the volatility of cryptoasset values, the massive inflows and outflows of capital around the crypto market cycle, and the now infamous collapses of major centralised exchanges all present structural challenges for the entire space. See more below.
Tea & Coffee provided.
Hot lunch provided.
Tea & coffee provided.
Tea & coffee provided.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an epoch defining event that has had a huge impact not only the global economy and geopolitical picture, but also on crypto markets and the development of blockchain. See more below.
Hot lunch provided.
Tea & coffee provided.
Big Picture Insight and Scholae introduce the Blockchain & Cryptocurrency Event, followed by a presentation providing a strategic overview of the space and how each topic fits into the broader picture.
Arguably the biggest impact of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency will be seen in developing economies, where they can provide access to transaction services for the unbanked and offer to significantly reduce the cost of remittances. This topic will examine the growing use of cryptocurrency services in developing economies, particularly in Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East, and what economic impact this will increasingly have and to what degree this may increase trust in formal finance and reduce the size of ‘shadow’ economies. Additionally, it will explore how the reduced cost of remittances using blockchain & cryptocurrency, and how applications for micro-enterprises and web3 finance utilities offer increasing opportunities in economic and international development.
The rapid rise and fall of competing blockchain and web3 projects, the volatility of cryptoasset values, the massive inflows and outflows of capital around the crypto market cycle, and the now infamous collapses of major centralised exchanges all present structural challenges for the entire space. Despite the relative dominance of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the sheer volume of other blockchain projects with competing functions and a present lack of true interoperability present a significant obstacle to wider acceptance and adoption, and these face challenges from centralised government alternatives such as CBDCs and blockchain infrastructure projects as well as big tech’s interest in areas such as payments and the metaverse. This topic analyses these challenges, as well as those posited by concerns over consumer protections and centralised exchange stability – brought to public attention most notably by the collapse of FTX – as well as general concerns over the apparently speculative nature of the crypto market cycle and the risk of contagion to global markets from crypto market crashes, such as following the 2022 de-pegging of the TerraUSD stablecoin and subsequent collapse of the Luna ecosystem.
As strategic competition and hostility between the West, China and much of the global south increases, blockchain, cryptocurrency and web3 development are increasingly serving as an arena for these geopolitical pressures. This topic will explore how diverging regulatory pictures and investment opportunities are creating increasing geographical decentralisation of blockchain and crypto projects, how different governance models allow for different regulatory approaches – China’s ability to use Hong Kong as a crypto test bed for example, and the development of new financial centres. Furthermore, it will examine the opportunities and risks of these developments, and how they might play out in the months and years ahead.
Stablecoins are a form of crypto asset that are pegged to another asset, such as commodities or fiat currencies, in order to stabilise their price, and they have become an essential part of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, forming a major on-ramp for fiat currencies and providing much of the liquidity for DeFi and crypto trading. Their theoretically constant price stability versus the more volatile prices of other crypto assets gives them major utility, and given that over 99% of stable coins by volume are pegged to the US dollar, they have proven popular in states experiencing high inflation or capital controls. There are concerns however over how stablecoins are backed and collateralised, and the de-pegging of the algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) in May 2022, which led to the collapse of the Terra-Luna ecosystem and wiped out around $45 billion in market capitalisation within a single week, demonstrated the potential instability and systemic risk of stablecoins as an asset class.
Interest in the state adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender has grown in recent years, with formal adoption taking place in El Salvador in 2021 and then in the Central African Republic between 2022 and 2023, and with it the potential for significant impact on the global financial system. Along with other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum it has also become accepted for tax payments at the subnational level in the US state of Arizona and the Swiss canton of Zug, and this suggests another trajectory of state acceptance of Bitcoin, if not outright adoption. This topic will explore the implications of this process, as well as examining the potential for Bitcoin as a reserve currency, particularly in states which use pegged currencies and therefore without direct control over monetary policy.
An often unclear and difficult regulatory situation for crypto in the US has huge implications for the web3 industry, not only in the US but globally where the influence of the US is strongly felt in bodies such as the G20’s FSB (Financial Stability Board), the WEF (World Economic Forum) and the IMF (International Monetary Fund). Within the US the two major independent federal agencies seen as most responsible for digital assets, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) have been accused of ‘legislation by enforcement’ and the SEC has taken legal action against several large crypto exchanges and projects. This topic examines the current impact of the US and global regulatory picture on blockchain, cryptocurrency and web3 and will explore how this might develop in the near future.
The adoption and use cases of blockchain and cryptocurrency are key to the development of web3 and whether the technology can move beyond the realms of financial speculation and niche roles, with significant developments underway in the form of bottom-up and top-down processes. Cryptocurrency has seen popular use both as a hedge against inflation and as a form of self-custodial banking in states with high inflation such as Turkey, Venezuela, and Argentina. State and regional interest in blockchain technology, particularly with regards to digital identities, services, logistics, and cross-border payments has led to the creation of incipient state-level blockchain projects, namely Latin America and the Caribbean’s Lacchain, China’s Blockchain-based Service Network, and the EU’s recently announced European Digital Infrastructure Consortium (EDIC).
Big Picture Insight and Scholae deliver a presentation providing a strategic
overview of the second day’s topics and how each topic fits into the broader picture.
Post-Brexit, the British government has expressed a desire to establish the UK as a global hub for crypto, blockchain and web3, and with the passing of the Financial Services and Markets Bill (FSMA) on the 28 June 2023, it has arguably established the regulatory framework to do so. Following on the heels of the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, the bill covers crypto assets and services relating to them, creates the category of digital settlement assets (which cover stablecoins) and introduces the legal basis for new financial market infrastructure (FMI) ‘sandboxes’ to enable experimentation and testing of new technology – particularly blockchain – in financial markets. This topic assesses the impact, outlook and opportunities of this legislation and examines how the UK compares to other global hubs, and in particular the US and EU, in this area.
In the realm of security and conflict, blockchain, cryptocurrency and web3 present a new paradigm for hostile states, sanctions evasion, sub-national actors, organised crime, and dissident and resistance movements that is being increasingly embraced. Many states that are subject to international sanctions have been actively engaged with cryptocurrency as a form of sanctions evasion or relief (Venezuela and Iran, for example), whilst organised crime and cybercrime groups make use of its pseudonymous, decentralised, and borderless nature; in some cases, states have sponsored cybercrime groups in order to steal cryptocurrency, the most notorious example being the North Korean-backed Lazarus Group. This topic examines the nature of these dynamics and the security outlook for the near future.
Approved in April 2023 and set to become law in 2024, the EU Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) Regulation sets a clear legislative framework for crypto assets in the EU, and sets a global precedent. MiCA overrides pre-existing regulation at the member state level, creates standards for crypto asset service providers (CASPs), and defines three categories of crypto assets. This topic will examine the impact of this regulation on the crypto and web3 space, at the European level and globally. It will also compare MiCA to other state’s legislation as well as assess the limitations and omissions – such as a lack of coverage for DAOs, NFTs and DeFi, issues over the regulations for CASPs, and concerns over transaction volume limits.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an epoch defining event that has had a huge impact not only the global economy and geopolitical picture, but also on crypto markets and the development of blockchain. Our global security content partner Scholae will provide an up-to-date analysis of the war itself, its impact, and the way that the crypto, blockchain and web3 space has played a role and in turn been affected. Important sub-topics such as both sides’ use of crypto and blockchain infrastructure in their war efforts, as well as the role of sanctions, will be examined.
The central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) currently being developed will result in the direct introduction of blockchain technology into the lives of the citizens of most of the world’s major and developed economies, and have wide implications for society, business and global trade. The Bahamas, Jamaica and the 9 members of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) have already introduced CBDCs, 53 countries are either in a pilot or active development stage, and another 45 countries are researching the possibility; notably every member of the G20 and BRICs are developing CBDCs, suggesting their adoption as a global norm is a question of when rather than if. This topic will examine the impact of CBDCs and their adoption, from benefits such as financial inclusion, security and efficiency to concerns over citizens’ privacy and financial freedom and threats to the banking sector and noting the arguable emergence of two models – one ‘democratic’ and the other ‘dystopian’.
Decentralised finance (DeFi) uses smart contracts on a blockchain to offer financial instruments without relying on the ‘traditional finance’ (TradFi) intermediaries such as banks, brokerages and exchanges – and has proven to be a major on-ramp for institutional investors into the cryptocurrency and web3 environment. This topic will examine both how DeFi offers several major advantages over TradFi, namely its universal accessibility, autonomy and immunity to bankruptcy, transparency and personal security via the immutability of blockchain’s public ledgers, and low fees and high interest rates, as well as how it also presents numerous risks, such as volatility, complexity of use, apparent reliance on stablecoins, and frequent targeting by major hacking operations. The strategic impact of DeFi will be considered as well as potential future trajectories, taking into account DeFi’s challenges from CBDCs and centralising ‘big tech’ alternatives, as well as the proposition that the ‘decentralised’ aspect of DeFi is merely illusory.
Blockchain, cryptocurrency and web3 have in just over a decade proven to be one of the most dynamic areas of global economic and technological development, and the fast-moving trends within the field pose numerous risks and opportunities in the years ahead. Image issues around illicit use by criminal and hostile state actors, concerns over the energy usage of proof-of-work cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, and hostile regulatory and enforcement actions pose significant risks; on the other hand, opportunities abound – whether from increasing mass-adoption, efficiency increases from the implementation of blockchain technology, or simply the massive returns on investment from the meteoric rise of many crypto and web3 startups. This topic analyses the current trends in blockchain, cryptocurrency and web3, and examines emerging risks and opportunities from a strategic perspective.